Four weeks before the Nitto ATP Finals begin in Turin on 15 November, only two healthy players are sure of their place: Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz. As of Friday 16 October, with the Shanghai Masters at the semi-final stage, the other six spots are still open, and Jannik Sinner's absence has changed the maths.
The qualifiers so far
Zverev, the Roland Garros and US Open champion, booked his place on 6 August and leads the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin with 9,150 points. Alcaraz, who won the Australian Open before a wrist injury kept him out for months, confirmed his place on 16 September, the ATP said. He was then beaten by Zizou Bergs in the third round in Shanghai.
Jannik Sinner had also qualified. But on 6 October the world No 1 announced that his 2026 season was "officially over" because of an ongoing knee problem, the ATP reported. The Italian, who has not played since winning Wimbledon in July, is the two-time defending champion in Turin. He remains second in the Race on 7,950 points, but he will not take up his place.
Why ninth place is now enough
The top seven in the Race qualify automatically. The eighth place is reserved for a 2026 Grand Slam champion ranked between eighth and 20th, but this year's four major winners (Alcaraz, Zverev twice and Sinner) are all in the top three. So the last spot goes to the next player in the standings. With Sinner out, as the ATP put it, ninth in the Live Race "is effectively eighth".
Here is the Live Race as published by the ATP on 16 October, after the Shanghai quarter-finals involving Zverev and Jodar:
- 4. Ben Shelton 4,480 points
- 5. Flavio Cobolli 3,540
- 6. Frances Tiafoe 3,380
- 7. Arthur Fils 3,325
- 8. Daniil Medvedev 3,220
- 9. Rafael Jodar 2,909
- 10. Alex de Minaur 2,880
- 11. Novak Djokovic 2,840
- 12. Tommy Paul 2,585; 13. Taylor Fritz 2,530
Shanghai shakes up the chasing pack
Shanghai has been unkind to several contenders. Shelton, who could have sealed his place by reaching the fourth round, lost to Arthur Gea in his second match. Cobolli lost his opener to Adrian Mannarino, while Fils and Tiafoe went out in the third round and Fritz lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Djokovic, who won the title in Beijing the week before, was beaten by Hubert Hurkacz in the second round.
The big winner is Jodar. The 20-year-old Spaniard beat Casper Ruud on Friday to reach the semi-finals and climbed above de Minaur and Djokovic into ninth. Medvedev, directly above him, plays Tommy Paul for the right to face him. De Minaur reached the quarter-finals before losing 6-4 6-4 to Zverev, who meets Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Saturday.
What is left to play
After Shanghai, the indoor season offers ATP 250 events in Almaty, Brussels and Lyon (19-25 October), then the ATP 500s in Basel and Vienna (26 October-1 November). The Race closes after the Paris Masters (2-8 November), the last Masters 1000 of the year.
Djokovic has already set out his plan. "I am planning on only playing in Paris," he said after his Shanghai loss, adding that he would like to play in Turin. That means everything rests on one event for the 24-time major champion.
What it means
Shelton, more than 1,500 points clear of ninth place, needs little more to make sure. Below him the gaps are tight: only 700 points separate Cobolli in fifth from Djokovic in 11th, while a Masters 1000 title is worth 1,000 and an ATP 500 title 500. Basel, Vienna and Paris will decide who joins Zverev and Alcaraz, and Jodar, de Minaur and Djokovic look set to fight for the final ticket.
Sources
This article was written by TiebreakNews from the reporting below, checked against official results and rankings.
- ATP Tour — Jannik Sinner to miss rest of 2026 due to injury
- ATP Tour — PIF ATP Live Race To Turin
- ATP Tour — Jodar rallies again in Shanghai! Sinks Ruud for SF spot
- TNT Sports — ATP Finals 2026: Who has qualified already?
- ATP Tour — Novak Djokovic gives schedule update following Shanghai exit