At the end of the US Open 2022 we could have a new number one, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, a great return to the top, that of Rafael Nadal or continue to keep Daniil Medvedev on the top step.
Different combinations, with the four-time champion of the tournament in the most privileged position. If nothing else when the bowls are completely still. By winning the tournament, Rafa would obviously return to world number one regardless of the result of all the others: he would even detach them by at least 1500 points, given that even reaching the final Medvedev would find himself at 6085 against the 7630 of the Spaniard.
Even without the title, however, the very Spanish champion would have several options available. If he does not overcome the first round, he could settle for a defeat at the foot of the semifinal of the other four.
A hypothetical defeat in the final would cost him the first position in the ranking only if he was beaten in that case by the title holder. Quite similar situation also for the quarter and semifinal scenarios. In the first case, Medvedev or Tsitsipas should not reach the final and the other two should miss the final success.
In the second, the Spaniard would be enough for none of the four to win the tournament. Medvedev is essentially the only one who has the fate of his own hands since winning the tournament would guarantee the possibility of staying at the top of the ranking regardless of all other scenarios.
From Tsitsipas onwards, the options obviously become more complicated. After the final obtained on the hard in Cincinnati, the Greek talent should win the title and hope that Nadal will not be present on the opposite side of the net in the final.
If the Spaniard does not go beyond the quarter-finals and the Greek stops in the final, he should instead put his hopes on the fact that one of the other candidates for the number one position in the standings will not triumph on Flushing Meadows concrete.
Alcaraz needs to win the tournament, with an opponent other than Nadal in the final, also because if he were limited to reaching the final, he would have to hope for the Spaniard’s misstep before the quarter-finals and a different champion from Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Ruud. Basically in the same situation as Carlos the Norwegian.